SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 130

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,if a five-month moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the first calculated value?

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Definitions:

Shutdown Point

The level of production and price at which a business's total revenue is equal to its total variable costs, making it indifferent between ceasing operations and continuing to produce.

Break-even

The point at which revenue received equals the costs associated with receiving the revenue, resulting in neither a profit nor a loss.

Profitable Output

The level of production at which a business or economic activity generates the highest amount of profit, balancing costs and revenues efficiently.

Market Price

The current price at which a good or service can be bought or sold in a marketplace, determined by the forces of supply and demand.