SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 149

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the first month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5?

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Definitions:

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The process by which individuals learn and internalize the values, attitudes, and behaviors considered appropriate to their culture and society.

Conventional Stage

A phase in Lawrence Kohlberg's theory of moral development where individuals make judgments based on societal rules and norms.

Lawrence Kohlberg

A psychologist best known for his theory of stages of moral development, which proposes that individuals progress through distinct stages of moral reasoning as they age.

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The act of overcoming disorganization by eliminating unnecessary items and organizing what remains.