SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 55

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14 ,the best interpretation of the constant 3.37 in the regression equation is:

• A)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011,prior to seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀ 3.37.
• B)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011,after to seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀ 3.37.
• C)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011,prior to seasonal adjustment,is 10^3.37.
• D)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011,after to seasonal adjustment,is 10^3.37.

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