SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 161

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14,to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 15,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• B)X = 15,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• C)X = 16,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• D)X = 16,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0

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