SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 100

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14,using the regression equation,which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the second quarter of 2015?

• A)144,212
• B)391,742
• C)1,238,797
• D)4,355,119

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Definitions:

Pareto Optimal

An alternative term for Pareto Efficient, describing a state where making any individual or preference criterion better off without making at least one individual or criterion worse off is impossible.

Allocation

The process of distributing resources or tasks among various projects, departments, or individuals.

Initial Allocation

The original distribution of resources, goods, or tasks among various parties or locations.

Pareto Optimal

A situation in which it is impossible to make any individual better off without making at least one individual worse off.