SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 167

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,in testing the significance of the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (- 0.129) which has a p-value of 0.492.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different from the revenues in an average quarter ( α = 0.05).
• B)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different from the revenues in an average quarter ( α = 0.05).
• C)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different from the revenues in the fourth quarter ( α = 0.05).
• D)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different from the revenues in the fourth quarter ( α = 0.05).