SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 18

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,if a five-month moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the last calculated value?

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Definitions:

Square Root

The square root of a number is a value that, when multiplied by itself, gives the original number.

P < 0.05

A statistical threshold indicating that the observed results are significant with a probability of less than 5% being due to chance.

Obtained Value

The actual value measured or computed from a data set or experiment, often compared against a theoretic or critical value in hypothesis testing.

Population Standard Deviation

The population standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or spread of a set of values within a population, quantifying how much the values differ from the population mean.