SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 161

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14,to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 15,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• B)X = 15,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• C)X = 16,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• D)X = 16,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0

---

Definitions:

Globin

A group of proteins that form part of the structure of hemoglobin, responsible for oxygen transport in the blood.

Peptide Bonds

Chemical bonds formed between amino acids during protein synthesis, linking the carboxyl group of one amino acid to the amino group of another, releasing water.

Protein Structure

The three-dimensional arrangement of atoms in an amino acid-chain molecule, crucial for the protein's function.

Primary

First in order, rank, importance, or relating to the initial stage of a process or sequence.