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SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 117

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ= 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆis the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14,in testing the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (- 0.083) ,the results were a t-statistic of - 0.66 and an associated p-value of 0.530.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Definitions:

Rectovaginal Examination

A physical exam where a health professional examines the lower rectum, vagina, and cervix with gloved fingers.

Palpate

To examine or explore by touching (an organ or area of the body), usually for medical purposes.

Cervical Cell Changes

Alterations in the cells of the cervix, which can vary from benign changes to precancerous conditions.

Rectovaginal Examination

A clinical procedure where the doctor examines the lower rectum, vagina, and cervix by inserting two fingers into the vagina and one in the rectum.