One Common Method Used to Forecast the Results of Elections

question 43

Essay

One common method used to forecast the results of elections is to take an "exit poll," asking people who they supported as they come out of the voting place. Suppose Smith and Jones are running for City Dogcatcher. In point of fact, 60% of the voting public in the neighborhood of the polling place support Smith. Assuming that the candidate of choice for a voter leaving the polling place is independent of the candidate of choice for the next person to leave, what is the probability that the first 5 voters to leave the polling place would have this sequence for candidate of choice? Smith, Smith, Smith, Jones, Smith