Compute the Expected Value of Perfect Information -What Is the Expected Opportunity Loss for the 1-Year ARM

question 36

Multiple Choice

Compute the expected value of perfect information.
Use the below information to answer the following question(s) . Below is a payoff table with three mortgage options: $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline & { \text { Outcome } } \\\hline \text { Probability } & { \mathbf { 0 . 6 } } & { \mathbf { 0 . 3 } } & { \mathbf { 0 . 1 } } \\\hline \text { Decision } & \text { Rates Rise } & \text { Rates Stable } & \text { Rates Fall } \\\hline \text { 1-year ARM } & \$ 66,645 & \$ 43,650 & \$ 38,560 \\\hline \text { 3-year ARM } & \$ 62,857 & \$ 47,698 & \$ 42,726 \\\hline \text { 30-year fixed } & \$ 52,276 & \$ 52,276 & \$ 52,276 \\\hline\end{array}$$
-What is the expected opportunity loss for the 1-year ARM?

• A) $ 7,979.60
• B) $ 3,959.40
• C) $ 6,853.50
• D) $ 8,621.40

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Definitions:

Required Rate

The lowest expected gain an investor aims to receive from an investment in a specific asset, taking into account the associated risk.

Fixed Costs

Expenses that do not change with the volume of production or sales, such as rent, salaries, and insurance premiums.

Bottom-Up Approach

A strategy that starts at the very detailed level and works upwards to form a complete picture, often used in analysis or planning.

Operating Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is the cash that comes from a company's usual business activities, showing if it can produce enough positive cash flow to sustain and expand its operations.