Use the Information Below to Answer the Following Question(s)

question 43

Multiple Choice

Use the information below to answer the following question(s) . Below is a decision tree illustrating the R&D process for a new drug. Let us assume that if market is large, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $4,900 million and a standard deviation of $1,000 million; if market is medium, payoff is lognormally distributed with a mean of $2,500 million and a standard deviation of $500 million; and if market is small, payoff is normally distributed with a mean of $1,800 million and standard deviation of
$200 million. Let us also assume that the cost of clinical trials is uncertain and estimates are modeled with a triangular distribution with a minimum of -$700 million, a most likely value of - $550 million, and a maximum of -$500 million. Use 10,000 trials and a random seed of 1.
-What is the value of mean obtained from the simulation results? [Hint: Choose the approximate value.]

• A) $ 119.0
• B) $ 116.1
• C) $ 106.2
• D) $ 94.4

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Definitions:

Political Power

The ability or capacity to influence, control, or manipulate the policies, actions, and affairs of a political entity, such as a country or city.

Berlinghieri's Saint Francis Altarpiece

A 13th-century painting by Bonaventura Berlinghieri, celebrated for its depiction of Saint Francis of Assisi and marking a significant moment in early Italian art.

Frontality

The depiction of a subject in visual arts where the figure is shown facing forward, directly engaging with the viewer.

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A term describing rigid, unnatural body positions in art, often noted in earlier portrayals of the human figure.