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Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation Using Historical Data and Resampling Techniques

question 20

Multiple Choice

Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s) .
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model.  A  B  C  D  E 1 Hotel Overbooking Model  Demand  Probability 22900.033 Data 2950.0543000.085 Rooms av ailable 3503050.126 Price $1203100.157 Overbooking cost $1003150.2083200.159 Model 3250.10103300.0511 Reserv ation limit 3503350.0412 Customer demand 3203400.0213 Reservations made 3450.0114 Cancellations 1515 Customer arrivals 1617 Overbooked customers 18 Net revenue \begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array} Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.
-With respect to B14, what should the number of trials correspond to in the Parameters section of the Binomial dialog?

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Definitions:

Labor

Refers to human effort, both physical and mental, used in the production of goods and services.

Output

Output is the quantity of goods or services produced by a company, industry, or economy within a specified period.

Average Product

The output per unit of input, calculated by dividing total output by the quantity of inputs.

Law of Diminishing Returns

An economic principle stating that as additional units of a factor of production are added to a fixed amount of another factor, the incremental increase in output will eventually decrease.

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