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Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation Using Historical Data and Resampling Techniques

question 37

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Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques. Use the information below to answer the following question(s) .
Below is a spreadsheet for a hotel overbooking model.  A  B  C  D  E 1 Hotel Overbooking Model  Demand  Probability 22900.033 Data 2950.0543000.085 Rooms av ailable 3503050.126 Price $1203100.157 Overbooking cost $1003150.2083200.159 Model 3250.10103300.0511 Reserv ation limit 3503350.0412 Customer demand 3203400.0213 Reservations made 3450.0114 Cancellations 1515 Customer arrivals 1617 Overbooked customers 18 Net revenue \begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|l|l|}\hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } &{\text { D }} & \text { E } \\\hline 1 & \text { Hotel Overbooking Model } & & & \text { Demand } & \text { Probability } \\\hline 2 & & & & 290 & 0.03 \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & & 295 & 0.05 \\\hline 4 & & && 300 & 0.08 \\\hline 5 & \text { Rooms av ailable } & 350 && 305 & 0.12 \\\hline 6 & \text { Price } & \$ 120 & & 310 & 0.15 \\\hline 7 & \text { Overbooking cost } & \$ 100 && 315 & 0.20 \\\hline 8 && & & 320 & 0.15 \\\hline 9 & \text { Model } & & & 325 & 0.10 \\\hline 10 & & & & 330 & 0.05 \\\hline 11 & \text { Reserv ation limit } & 350 && 335 & 0.04 \\\hline 12 & \text { Customer demand } & 320 && 340 & 0.02 \\\hline 13 & \text { Reservations made } & & &345 & 0.01 \\\hline 14 & \text { Cancellations } & 15 \\\hline 15 & \text { Customer arrivals } & \\\hline 16 & & \\\hline 17 & \text { Overbooked customers } & \\\hline 18 & \text { Net revenue } & \\\hline\end{array} Assume that each reservation has a constant probability p = 0.04 of being cancelled. Answer the question(s) using the Risk Solver Platform.
-Which of the following cells is defined as an output cell?

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Definitions:

Predictive

Relating to the ability to foresee or anticipate future events or outcomes based on current data or trends.

Standardization

The process of developing and implementing technical standards to ensure consistency and compatibility between processes and products.

Predictive Validity

The extent to which a score on a scale or test predicts future performance on a related measure.

Intelligence Test Scores

Numerical values derived from assessments designed to measure an individual's cognitive abilities in comparison to a normative population.

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