The Time-Series Multiplicative Model Is Used for Forecasting, Where $T _ { t } , C _ { t } , S _ { t }$

question 75

Multiple Choice

The time-series multiplicative model is used for forecasting, where $T _ { t } , C _ { t } , S _ { t }$ and $R _ { t }$ are respectively the trend, cyclical, seasonal and random variation components of the time series, and $y _ { t }$ is the value of the time series at time t. The following estimates are obtained: $\hat { T _ { 1 } }$ = 125, $\tilde { C } _ { t }$ = 1.03, $\hat { S } _ { t }$ = 1.02, $\hat { R } _ { t }$ = 0.97. The model will produce a forecast of:

• A) 122.659.
• B) 131.325.
• C) 118.980.
• D) 127.385.

---

Definitions:

Capabilities

The skills, resources, and abilities that an organization possesses to successfully perform tasks and achieve its objectives.

Bullwhip Effect

A phenomenon in supply chain management where small changes in demand at the consumer end cause larger magnifications in demand upstream.

Human Resource Supply

The availability of individuals with the skills and qualifications required to meet the labor needs of employers.

External Supply

Members of the workforce not currently employed by the firm, who are currently undergoing training, working for competitors, members of unions or professional associations, in a transitional stage, between jobs, or unemployed.