The Pyramids of Giza Are One of the Most Visited

question 10

Essay

The Pyramids of Giza are one of the most visited monuments in Egypt. The number of visitors per quarter has been recorded (in thousands) as shown in the accompanying table: $$\begin{array}{l}\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\text { Year }\\\begin{array} { | l | c c c c | } \hline \text { Quarter } & 1995 & 1996 & 1997 & 1998 \\\hline \text { Winter } & 210 & 215 & 218 & 220 \\\text { Spring } & 260 & 275 & 282 & 290 \\\text { Summer } & 480 & 490 & 505 & 525 \\\text { Autumn } & 250 & 255 & 265 & 270 \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$$ a. Plot the time series.
b. Discuss why exponential smoothing is not recommended as a forecasting method in this case.
c. Calculate the four-quarter centred moving averages.
d. Use the moving averages computed in (c) to calculate the seasonal (quarterly) indexes.
e. Use the seasonal indexes computed in (d) to deseasonalise the original time-series data, and plot the deseasonalised time series.
f. Use regression analysis to develop the trend line.
g. Use the seasonal indexes calculated in (d) and the linear trend calculated in (f) to forecast the number of visitors in the next four quarters and describe the seasonal fluctuations in the number of visitors.

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Definitions:

Disaffirm A Contract

The legal right of a party to renounce or reject a contract, which can be particularly relevant when one of the parties is a minor or otherwise lacks the capacity to contract.

Executory Contracts

Contracts under which both parties to the agreement have unfulfilled obligations that remain to be done.

Prohibited By Statute

Actions or practices that are explicitly disallowed by written laws.

Unenforceable

A term describing a contract or clause that cannot be legally upheld or compelled by a court.