The Daily Price of a Farm Commodity Is Up, Down

question 42

Essay

The daily price of a farm commodity is up, down, or unchanged from the day before. Analysts predict that if the last price was down, there is a .5 probability the next will be down, and a .4 probability the price will be unchanged. If the last price was unchanged, there is a .35 probability it will be down and a .35 probability it will be up. For prices whose last movement was up, the probabilities of down, unchanged, and up are .1, .3, and .6.
a.Construct the matrix of transition probabilities.
b.Calculate the steady state probabilities.

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Definitions:

Money Supply

The entirety of monetary resources accessible in an economy during a specific period.

Rational

Characterized by clear and logical thinking, often with regard to fulfilling one's personal goals or making decisions based on empirical evidence and reasoning.

Unemotional Self-interest

Refers to actions motivated purely by personal gain without regard to emotions or moral considerations.

Q

Generally denotes quantity in economic and mathematical models, referring to the amount of goods or services.