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A Polygraph Test Is Sometimes Used to Detect If Someone

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A polygraph test is sometimes used to detect if someone is lying, but it is generally not admissible in court because of its dubious accuracy. A polygraph test is given to 98 people, and the test is wrong for 24 of them. What is the empirical probability that the polygraph test is wrong for a randomly chosen person? What is the probability that it is right?


Definitions:

Self-referent Question

A type of question that prompts individuals to evaluate themselves or reflect on their personal experiences or attitudes.

Generate Emotions

The process through which individuals produce or evoke emotional responses to stimuli or thoughts.

Self-schema

Mental images of oneself that direct the interpretation of information related to oneself.

Possible Selves

Concepts of the self that an individual could become, might be afraid of becoming, or is hopeful of becoming, serving as a motivational factor for behavior and social roles.

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