A Few Years Ago the News Magazine the Economist Listed

question 12

Essay

A few years ago the news magazine The Economist listed some of the stranger
explanations used in the past to predict presidential election outcomes.These included
whether or not the hemlines of women's skirts went up or down, stock market
performances, baseball World Series wins by an American League team, etc.Thinking
about this problem more seriously, you decide to analyze whether or not the presidential
candidate for a certain party did better if his party controlled the house.Accordingly you
collect data for the last 34 presidential elections.You think of this data as comprising a
population which you want to describe, rather than a sample from which you want to
infer behavior of a larger population.You generate the accompanying table: Joint Distribution of Presidential Party Affiliation and Party Control of House of Representatives, 1860-1996
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \begin{array}{c}\text { Democratic Control } \\\text { of House }(Y=0)\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { Republican Control } \\\text { of House }(Y=1)\end{array} & \text { Total } \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { Democratic } \\\text { President }(X=0)\end{array} & 0.412 & 0.030 & 0.441 \\\hline \begin{array}{c}\text { Republican } \\\text { President }(X=1)\end{array} & 0.176 & 0.382 & 0.559 \\\hline \text { Total } & 0.588 & 0.412 & 1.00\\\hline\end{array}$
(a)Interpret one of the joint probabilities and one of the marginal probabilities.

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Definitions:

CAD

Stands for Computer-Aided Design, a type of software used for creating precise drawings or technical illustrations in various engineering fields.

Economic Importance

The significance of an industry, sector, or activity in terms of its contribution to economic growth, employment, and wealth creation.

Trading Volume

The amount of an asset or securities traded during a specific period of time, often used as an indicator of market activity and liquidity.

Bubbles

Economic phenomena characterized by rapid increases in asset prices to levels significantly above the fundamental value, followed by a sharp decline.