You Set Out to Forecast the Unemployment Rate in the United

question 14

Essay

You set out to forecast the unemployment rate in the United States (UrateUS), using
quarterly data from 1960, first quarter, to 1999, fourth quarter.
(a)The following table presents the first four autocorrelations for the United States
aggregate unemployment rate and its change for the time period 1960 (first quarter)to
1999 (fourth quarter).Explain briefly what these two autocorrelations measure. First Four Autocorrelations of the U.S. Unemployment Rate and its Change,
1960:I - 1999 IV
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline \mathrm{Lag} & \text { Unemployment Rate } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Change of } \\\text { Unemployment Rate }\end{array} \\\hline 1 & 0.97 & 0.62 \\\hline 2 & 0.92 & 0.32 \\\hline 3 & 0.83 & 0.12 \\\hline 4 & 0.75 & -0.07 \\\hline\end{array}$

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Definitions:

Sigmund Freud

Sigmund Freud was an Austrian neurologist and the founder of psychoanalysis, a clinical method for treating psychopathology through dialogue between a patient and a psychoanalyst.

Instincts

Innate, fixed patterns of behavior in animals and humans that are responses to specific stimuli.

Bullying

Aggressive behavior among school-aged children and teenagers that involves a real or perceived power imbalance, including actions like making threats, spreading rumors, attacking someone physically or verbally, and excluding someone from a group.

Acts of Aggression

Behaviors intended to cause harm or pain to another person, ranging from verbal abuse to physical violence.