Consider the Monthly Time Series Shown in the Table A Use the Values Of Shown

question 72

Essay

Consider the monthly time series shown in the table. $\begin{array}{l|c|c}\hline \text { Month } & \mathrm{t} & \mathrm{Y} \\\hline \text { January } & 1 & 185 \\\hline \text { February } & 2 & 192 \\\hline \text { March } & 3 & 189 \\\hline \text { April } & 4 & 201 \\\hline \text { May } & 5 & 195 \\\hline \text { June } & 6 & 199 \\\hline \text { July } & 7 & 206 \\\hline \text { August } & 8 & 203 \\\hline \text { September } & 9 & 208 \\\hline \text { October } & 10 & 209 \\\hline \text { November } & 11 & 218 \\\hline \text { December } & 12 & 216 \\\hline\end{array}$
a. Use the values of $Y$ in the table to forecast the values of $Y$ for the next two months, using simple exponential smoothing with $\mathrm { w } = 0.7$ .
b. Use the Holt model with $w = 0.7$ and $v = 0.7$ to forecast the values of $Y$ for the next two months.

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Definitions:

Reciprocity Norm

A social norm that dictates that we should repay, in kind, what another person has provided us, promoting the exchange of goods, services, and favors.

Cognitive Dissonance

The mental discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values.

Fundamental Attribution Error

The tendency to overemphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while underemphasizing the role of situational factors.

Defensive Attribution

A psychological process by which individuals tend to ascribe greater blame to the victims of misfortune for their own victimization when they feel threatened by the likelihood of a similar event happening to them.