SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 30

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX. $$\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array}$$ You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, what is your forecast for 2016 using the linear-trend model?

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Definitions:

Correlational Study

A research method used to determine the relationship between two variables, without implying causation.

Cause-and-Effect

Cause-and-effect refers to the relationship between events or things, where one is the result of the other or others, typically serving as the reason something happens.

Experimental Method

A research technique in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable).

Correlational Studies

Research methods that examine the relationship between two or more variables to determine if a change in one variable is associated with a change in another.