SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 156

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,using the regression equation,what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2016?

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Definitions:

Biological Factors

These refer to the physiological and genetic influences that affect an individual's characteristics, behaviors, and health.

Environment

The combination of external physical, chemical, and biological factors and social and cultural influences that affect an individual or community's well-being.

Developmental Viewpoint

A perspective focusing on how human beings grow, change, and acquire new abilities and understanding over the course of their life.

Multifinality

The principle in developmental psychology that similar early experiences can lead to different outcomes.