SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 118

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,using the regression equation,what is the forecast for the revenues in the fourth quarter of 2015?

Recognize strategies to manage and expedite orders, including understanding of blanket purchase orders and vendor/supplier managed inventory systems.

Identify the significance of internal compliance and trust in the supply process.

Describe the process of identifying needs and the importance of the payment process alignment with supply management.

Understand the role and types of requisitions in the purchasing process.

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