SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 18

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,if a five-month moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the last calculated value?

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Definitions:

Political Action Committees (PACs)

Organizations that collect funds to donate to political campaigns or to spend on ads in support of political causes or candidates.

Incumbency Effect

The advantage held by the current officeholder, often seen in electoral politics, where incumbents have higher rates of reelection due to name recognition, experience, and access to resources.

Trade Associations

Organizations founded and funded by businesses that operate in a specific industry, aimed at promoting their collective interests.

Campaign Finance

The fundraising and spending of money by candidates and political parties for electoral campaigns, regulated by laws and ethics to ensure fairness and transparency.