SCENARIO 16-13
Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data

question 116

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S. retail sales of building materials over a
specific year. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Retail Sales } \\\hline 1 & 6,594 \\\hline 2 & 6,610 \\\hline 3 & 8,174 \\\hline 4 & 9,513 \\\hline 5 & 10,595 \\\hline 6 & 10,415 \\\hline 7 & 9,949 \\\hline 8 & 9,810 \\\hline 9 & 9,637 \\\hline 10 & 9,732 \\\hline 11 & 9,214 \\\hline 12 & 9,201 \\\hline\end{array}$$ The results of the linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive,
second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which
the coded month for the 1st month is 0: $\text { Linear trend model: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr} & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & \text { P-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 7950.7564 & 617.6342 & 12.8729 & 0.0000 \\\text { Coded Month } & 212.6503 & 95.1145 & 2.2357 & 0.0494\end{array}$

$\text { Quadratic trend model: }$


$\text { Exponential trend model: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & \text { P-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 3.8912 & 0.0315 & 123.3674 & 0.0000 \\\text { Coded Month } & 0.0116 & 0.0049 & 2.3957 & 0.0376\end{array}$


$\text { First-order autoregressive: }$
$\begin{array}{lrrrr} & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & {\text { P-value }} \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 3132.0951 & 1287.2899 & 2.4331 & 0.0378 \\\text { YLag1 } & 0.6823 & 0.1398 & 4.8812 & 0.0009 \\\hline\end{array}$


-Referring to Scenario 16-13, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for the $13 ^ { \text {th } }$ month
using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5 if the exponentially smooth value for the $10 ^ { \text {th } }$ and $11 ^ { \text {th } }$ month are 9,746.3672 and 9,480.1836, respectively?

Understand the conditions under which stress affects sleep and the concept of interactions in research.

Grasp the importance of using unobtrusive measures to prevent influencing participants' behavior in research settings.

Comprehend the process and significance of case studies in psychological research.

Recognize biases and critical thinking strategies in evaluating psychological research.

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Definitions:

Advertising Skills

The abilities and techniques used to effectively promote and sell products or services through various forms of media.

Interpersonal Skills

Abilities used by a person to interact effectively with others, such as communication, empathy, and conflict resolution.

Employment

The condition of having paid work; a formal relationship between an employer and an employee.

Lateral Thinking

A problem-solving approach that involves looking at challenges from new and unconventional angles.