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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You Are the CEO of a Diary Company

question 12

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SCENARIO 16-15-A
You are the CEO of a diary company. The total milk production (in gallons) from your company
over the past 30 years are presented below and also contained in the Excel file SCENARIO 16-
15-A.XLSX.  Year 198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Milk 150201172719171357157121155727152974153443158548162614164210 Prod 159127153866165992177843167477163821161700170348174105185103184670173385159695173641165706171164168706150684179314163802\begin{array} { l r r r r r r r r r r r } \text { Year } & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 & 1994 & 1995 \\& 1996 & 1997 & 1998 & 1999 & 2000 & 2001 & 2002 & 2003 & 2004 & 2005 \\& 2006 & 2007 & 2008 & 2009 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 \\\text { Milk } & 150201 & 172719 & 171357 & 157121 & 155727 & 152974 & 153443 & 158548 & 162614 & 164210 \\\text { Prod } & & & & & & & & & \\& 159127 & 153866 & 165992 & 177843 & 167477 & 163821 & 161700 & 170348 & 174105 & 185103 \\& 184670 & 173385 & 159695 & 173641 & 165706 & 171164 & 168706 & 150684 & 179314 & 163802\end{array} You want to predict your company's future total milk production using the linear trend, quadratic
trend, exponential trend, first-order autoregressive, second-order autoregressive and third-order
autoregressive model.
-Referring to Scenario 16-15-A, what is the exponentially smoothed value for 1997 using a
smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5?


Definitions:

Tokenism

The practice of making only a perfunctory or symbolic effort to be inclusive to members of minority groups, especially by recruiting a small number of people from underrepresented groups in order to give the appearance of equality within a workforce.

Cognitive Dissonance

A psychological phenomenon where an individual experiences discomfort or distress due to holding conflicting beliefs, attitudes, or values.

Intergroup Aggression

Aggressive behavior that occurs between different social groups, driven by cultural, racial, or ethnic differences, often fueled by stereotypes and prejudice.

Scapegoating

Scapegoating describes the act of blaming an individual or group for problems or negative outcomes that they did not cause, often as a way of deflecting attention or responsibility.

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