SCENARIO 5-12
Two Different Designs on a New Line of Winter

question 182

Short Answer

SCENARIO 5-12
Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your
manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers
when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the
corresponding profits are presented in the following table. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | r | r | } \hline \text { Probability } & \text { Taste } & \text { Design A } & \text { Design B } \\\hline 0.2 & \text { more conservative } & 180 & 520 \\\hline 0.5 & \text { no change } & 230 & 310 \\\hline 0.3 & \text { more liberal } & 350 & 270 \\\hline\end{array}$$
-Referring to Scenario 5-12, if you decide to choose Design A for half of the production lines and
Design B for the other half, what is your expected profit?

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Definitions:

Availability Heuristic

A cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory, making them seem more common or frequent than they are.

Additive Strategy

An approach in problem-solving where multiple solutions are added together to form the final answer or solve a complex issue.

Framing

The way information is presented to the audience, which can influence decision-making and perceptions by highlighting certain aspects while downplaying others.

Gut Feelings

Intuitive judgments and responses that one cannot articulately rationalize, often based on experience.