SCENARIO 4-17 Jake Woke Up Late in the Morning on the Day

question 197

Short Answer

SCENARIO 4-17
Jake woke up late in the morning on the day that he has to go to school to take an important test. He
can either take the shuttle bus which is usually running late 20% of the time or ride his unreliable
motorcycle which breaks down 40% of the time. He decides to toss a fair coin to make his choice.
-Referring to Scenario 4-17, if Jake, in fact, gets to the test on time, what is the probability that he
rode his bike?

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Definitions:

Insurance Salespeople

Professionals who specialize in selling insurance policies to protect individuals and businesses from financial loss.

Representativeness Heuristic

A cognitive shortcut that involves making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty, based on how much it resembles the typical case.

Three-Number Sequence

A specific arrangement of three numbers that follows a particular rule or pattern, often used in cognitive and psychological testing.

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and remember information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.