SCENARIO 5-12
Two Different Designs on a New Line of Winter

question 376

Short Answer

SCENARIO 5-12
Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your
manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers
when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the
corresponding profits are presented in the following table. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | r | r | } \hline \text { Probability } & \text { Taste } & \text { Design A } & \text { Design B } \\\hline 0.2 & \text { more conservative } & 180 & 520 \\\hline 0.5 & \text { no change } & 230 & 310 \\\hline 0.3 & \text { more liberal } & 350 & 270 \\\hline\end{array}$$
-Referring to Scenario 5-12 if you decide to choose Design A for 70% of the production lines and
Design B for the remaining production lines, what is the risk of your investment?

---

Definitions:

Cognitive Triad

A concept in cognitive therapy that refers to an individual's negative view of themselves, their future, and the world, contributing to depression.

Cognitive Errors

Faulty patterns of thinking that contribute to misinterpretations of reality or to emotional distress.

Beck

Refers to Aaron T. Beck, a psychiatrist known for his work in developing cognitive therapy, now known as cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT).

Psychosocial History

An individual’s past experiences and personal history regarding social interactions and psychologically significant events, often reviewed in therapeutic settings to better understand current issues.