Use Bayes's Rule to Find the Indicated Probability

question 22

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes's rule to find the indicated probability.
-Two shipments of components were received by a factory and stored in two separate bins. Shipment I has 2% of its contents defective, while shipment II has 5% of its contents defective. If it is Equally likely an employee will go to either bin and select a component randomly, what is the Probability that a defective component came from shipment II?

• A)0.333
• B)0.25
• C)0.5
• D)0.714

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Definitions:

Revenue Forgone

Potential income not earned or lost by choosing an alternative action, representing the opportunity cost of decisions.

Total Cost Method

A accounting approach that involves direct costs, indirect costs, and fixed and variable expenses to determine the overall cost of a product.

Manufacturing Costs

Expenses directly associated with the production of goods, including materials, labor, and overhead.

Total Cost Method

This method involves identifying the total cost of producing goods or services, including both fixed and variable costs.