Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 4

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Some employers use lie detector tests to screen job applicants. Lie detector tests are not completely reliable. Suppose that in a lie detector test, 63% of lies are identified as lies and that 16% of true statements are also identified as lies.
A company gives its job applicants a polygraph test, asking "Did you tell the truth on your job application?". Suppose that 90% of the job applicants tell the truth during the polygraph test.
What is the probability that a person who fails the test was actually telling the truth?

• A) 0.438
• B) 0.696
• C) 0.304
• D) 0.16

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Definitions:

Sternberg's Triarchic Theory

A theory of intelligence proposing that human intelligence can be divided into three components: analytical, creative, and practical.

Contextual Intelligence

The ability to understand the limits of our knowledge and to adapt that knowledge to an environment different from the one in which it was developed.

Experiential Intelligence

A facet of intelligence involving the ability to adapt to, shape, and select environments based on personal experiences and learning.

Developmental Quotient (DQ)

A measure used to assess a child's developmental progress in several domains compared to typical developmental milestones.