Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 4

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Some employers use lie detector tests to screen job applicants. Lie detector tests are not completely reliable. Suppose that in a lie detector test, 63% of lies are identified as lies and that 16% of true statements are also identified as lies.
A company gives its job applicants a polygraph test, asking "Did you tell the truth on your job application?". Suppose that 90% of the job applicants tell the truth during the polygraph test.
What is the probability that a person who fails the test was actually telling the truth?

• A) 0.438
• B) 0.696
• C) 0.304
• D) 0.16

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