Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 160

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-In the town of Maplewood a certain type of DVD player is sold at just two stores. 45% of the sales are from store A and 55% of the sales are from store B. 2.5% of the DVD players sold at store A are defective while 4.7% of the DVD players sold at store B are defective. If Kate receives one of these DVD players as a gift and finds that it is defective, what is the probability that it came from store A?

• A) 0.697
• B) 0.303
• C) 0.025
• D) 0.435

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