Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 4

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Some employers use lie detector tests to screen job applicants. Lie detector tests are not completely reliable. Suppose that in a lie detector test, 63% of lies are identified as lies and that 16% of true statements are also identified as lies.
A company gives its job applicants a polygraph test, asking "Did you tell the truth on your job application?". Suppose that 90% of the job applicants tell the truth during the polygraph test.
What is the probability that a person who fails the test was actually telling the truth?

• A) 0.438
• B) 0.696
• C) 0.304
• D) 0.16

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Definitions:

Payroll Tax

Taxes imposed on employers and/or employees, calculated as a percentage of the salaries that employers pay their staff.

Kantian Ethics

Kantian Ethics is a moral philosophy based on the work of Immanuel Kant, emphasizing that moral actions are those performed out of duty and guided by universalizable principles.

Deontology

An ethical theory that evaluates the morality of actions based on the adherence to defined rules or duties, regardless of the action's outcomes.

Utilitarianism

A philosophical theory that proposes actions are right if they are useful or for the benefit of a majority.