Suppose That You and a Friend Read the Following Statement

question 45

Essay

Suppose that you and a friend read the following statement in a news report, "A recent poll found that 54% of voters, give or take 3%, plan to vote for candidate X in the next election (with a confidence level of 95%)". Your friend then makes the statement, "Hey, look, there's a 95% chance that somewhere between 51% and 57% of voters plan to vote for candidate X!" How would you explain to your friend why his statement is incorrect, be sure to provide your friend with the correct interpretation of the confidence interval.

---

Definitions:

Confounding Variable

A variable that is not controlled in a research investigation. In an experiment the experimental groups diĉer onboth the independent variable andthe confounding variable.

Internal Validity

Refers to how well an experiment is conducted and whether it measures what it's supposed to measure, without being confounded by other factors.

Independent Variable

A variable in an experiment that is manipulated to observe its effects on a dependent variable.

Internal Validity

The extent to which a study provides evidence that a causal relationship exists between the variables it examines, free from confounding factors.