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If a Forecasting Model Produces Forecast Errors (Residuals) That Are

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If a forecasting model produces forecast errors (residuals) that are negatively correlated, then we expect a negative residual to be followed by another negative residual to be followed by another negative residual and so forth.


Definitions:

Risk-Free Rate

The theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk, often represented by the yield on government securities.

S&P Contract Multiplier

A factor used to determine the cash value of an S&P futures contract, which multiplies the value of the contract's underlying asset by a specific amount.

Fixed-Income Arbitrage

An investment strategy that seeks to exploit pricing differentials between related fixed income securities.

Quarterly Return

The investment profit or loss measured over a three-month period, often used to assess the performance of investments or portfolios.

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