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Urn 1 Contains 2 Blue Tokens and 8 Red Tokens;

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Urn 1 contains 2 blue tokens and 8 red tokens; urn 2 contains 12 blue tokens and 3 red tokens. You roll a die to determine which urn to choose: if you roll a 1 or 2 you choose urn 1; if you roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6 you choose urn 2. Once the urn is chosen, you draw out a token at random from that urn. Given that the token is blue, what is the probability that the token came from urn 1?


Definitions:

GDP

Gross Domestic Product, the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a specific time period.

Natural Rate

The natural rate typically signifies the unemployment rate that maintains a steady inflation rate over time, also known as the natural rate of unemployment.

Short-run Ups

Temporary or brief increases in economic indicators or market performance.

Standard of Living

The level of wealth, comfort, material goods, and necessities available to a person, group, or nation.

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