Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 142

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Some employers use lie detector tests to screen job applicants. Lie detector tests are not completely reliable. Suppose that in a lie detector test, 65% of lies are identified as lies and that 14% of true statements are also
Identified as lies.
A company gives its job applicants a polygraph test, asking "Did you tell the truth on your job application?".
Suppose that 93% of the job applicants tell the truth during the polygraph test. What is the probability that a
Person who fails the test was actually telling the truth?

• A) 0.349
• B) 0.259
• C) 0.741
• D) 0.14

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Definitions:

Universal Defense

A defense that is valid against all holders of a negotiable instrument, including holders in due course (HDCs) and holders with the rights of HDCs. Universal defenses are also called real defenses.

Personal Defense

Legal defenses that a defendant may use in a court of law to challenge the validity of a claim based on personal circumstances or conditions.

Agency Status

The condition of being an agent who is legally authorized to act on behalf of another person or entity, often subjected to specific responsibilities and liabilities.

Negotiable Instruments

Legal documents guaranteeing the payment of a specific amount of money, either on demand or at a set time, and which can be transferred by endorsement or delivery.