Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 142

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Some employers use lie detector tests to screen job applicants. Lie detector tests are not completely reliable. Suppose that in a lie detector test, 65% of lies are identified as lies and that 14% of true statements are also
Identified as lies.
A company gives its job applicants a polygraph test, asking "Did you tell the truth on your job application?".
Suppose that 93% of the job applicants tell the truth during the polygraph test. What is the probability that a
Person who fails the test was actually telling the truth?

• A) 0.349
• B) 0.259
• C) 0.741
• D) 0.14

---

Definitions:

Disulfiram

A medication used to treat chronic alcoholism by producing an acute sensitivity to ethanol, deterring individuals from alcohol consumption.

Blood Thinners

Medications that prevent or treat blood clots by reducing the blood’s clotting ability, also known as anticoagulants.

Alcohol Withdrawal

A group of symptoms that may occur when an individual who has been drinking heavily for weeks, months, or years stops or reduces alcohol consumption.