Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 36

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Shameel has a flight to catch on Monday morning. His father will give him a ride to the airport. If it rains, the traffic will be bad and the probability that he will miss his flight is 0.05. If it doesn't rain, the probability that he
Will miss his flight is 0.02. The probability that it will rain on Monday is 0.30.
Suppose that Shameel misses his flight. What is the probability that it was raining?

• A) 0.517
• B) 0.483
• C) 0.05
• D) 0.30

---

Definitions:

Pathos

An element in rhetoric that appeals to the emotions of the audience.

Argument By Emotion

A persuasion technique that relies on emotional appeals rather than logical facts.

Logos

Logos is a principle in classical rhetoric that represents logical reasoning or argument, and in branding, it refers to a symbol or other design adopted by an organization to identify its products, uniform, vehicles, etc.

Argument By Logic

Persuasion or debate technique where the focus is on using reasoned and structured reasoning to support a position or refute an opposing one.