Use Bayes' Theorem to Find the Indicated Probability

question 67

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' theorem to find the indicated probability.
-Pierre has three coins one of which is biased so that it turns up tails 60% of the time. If he randomly selects one of the coins, tosses it three times, and obtains three tails, what is the probability that this is the biased coin?

• A) 0.216
• B) 0.498
• C) 0.464
• D) 0.333

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Definitions:

Crankshaft

A crucial engine component that converts the reciprocating motion of the pistons into rotational motion to drive the vehicle.

Driveline Propeller Shaft

A mechanical component used to transmit power from the vehicle's transmission to the differential, enabling wheel rotation.

Torque Converter

A type of fluid coupling used in automatic transmissions that allows the engine to spin somewhat independently of the transmission, facilitating smooth gear changes.

Flex Disc

Used as a drive intermediary between the engine crankshaft and the torque converter used with automatic transmission systems on trucks; has dampening characteristics. Also known as flexplate.