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The Probability That House Sales Will Increase in the Next

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The probability that house sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.25. The probability that the interest rates on housing loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.74. The probability that house sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.89. The events increase in house sales and no increase in house sales in the next 6 months are


Definitions:

Excess Reserves

Bank reserves that exceed the required minimum amount that financial institutions must hold in reserve against deposit liabilities.

Required Reserves

The minimum amount of reserves that a bank must hold as dictated by central banking regulations, typically a percentage of deposits.

Interest

The cost of borrowing money, typically expressed as a percentage of the amount borrowed, that lenders charge borrowers for the use of their funds.

Federal Reserve

The central banking system of the United States, responsible for setting monetary policy, regulating banks, maintaining financial stability, and providing banking services.

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