TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 5

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, the best interpretation of the coefficient of X (0.012) in the regression equation is

• A) the quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• B) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• C) the quarterly growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.
• D) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.

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Definitions:

Marginal Cost Curve

A graph that shows the change in the cost of producing one more unit of a good.

Profit-Maximizing

The process or strategy of adjusting production and sale to achieve the highest possible profit.

Input Price

The cost associated with purchasing the inputs or resources required for production, including materials, labor, and capital.

Producer Surplus

The disparity between the amount sellers are ready to accept for a good or service and the price they actually receive.