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Steve Gentry, the operations manager of Baja Fabricators, wants to purchase a new profiling machine (it cuts compound angles on the ends of large structural pipes used in the fabrication yard). However, because the price of crude oil is depressed, the market for such equipment is down. Steve believes that the market will improve in the near future and that the company should expand its capacity. The table below displays the three equipment options he is currently considering, and the profit he expects each one to yield over a two-year period. The consensus forecast at Baja is that there is about a 30% probability that the market will pick up "soon" (within 3 to 6 months) and a 70% probability that the improvement will come "later" (in 9 to 12 months, perhaps longer).
(a) Calculate the expected monetary value of each decision alternative.
(b) Which equipment option should Steve take?
Decision Complexity
Refers to the level of difficulty and intricacies involved in making choices, often due to the presence of numerous variables and potential outcomes.
Ethical Issues
Moral challenges faced by individuals or organizations, pertaining to what is right or wrong in conduct, often necessitating careful consideration and decision-making.
Value Judgments
Assessments based on personal values, beliefs, or priorities rather than objective criteria.
Decision Making
The cognitive process of selecting a course of action from multiple alternatives, often involving some form of judgement or deliberation.
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