A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 63

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and he is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years.
"First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."
Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values. Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Liability

Any financial debt or obligation that a company owes, which must be settled over time through the transfer of economic benefits including money, goods, or services.

Owner's Equity

The residual interest in the assets of a business after deducting liabilities, representing the ownership interest of shareholders in a company.

Balance Sheet

A financial statement that presents a company’s financial position, showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.

Bookkeeper

A person responsible for recording the financial transactions and maintaining the financial records of a business.