A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 63

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and he is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years.
"First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."
Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values. Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Chronic Diseases

Long-lasting health conditions that may not be cured but can be managed through treatment and lifestyle changes.

CDC

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a national public health institute in the United States, focused on protecting public health and safety through control and prevention of disease.

Deaths

The end of life in organisms; the permanent cessation of all vital functions and signs.

Proportion

A part, share, or number considered in comparative relation to a whole.