Consider the Disaster Risk Decision Tree Model

question 93

Essay

Consider the disaster risk decision tree model.
(a) Derive a formula to represent the amount that the probability of all suppliers being disrupted simultaneously, P(n), will increase if the super-event probability S is doubled.
(b) Test your formula by computing the amount of increase if the original S equals 2% and there are two suppliers, each with U = 5%.

---

Definitions:

Supermarket Employee

A person working in a supermarket, performing various duties such as stocking shelves, operating cash registers, or providing customer service.

Checkout Counter

The place in a store where goods are paid for and where transactions are completed.

Cell Phone

A portable electronic device that enables users to make voice calls, send text messages, and access the internet.

Accept

Agreement to the terms of a proposal or offer, thereby creating a binding contract between the parties involved.