Suppose That the Manager of a Company Has Estimated the Probability

question 193

Multiple Choice

Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next three years that will disrupt all suppliers as 2%. In addition, the firm currently uses four suppliers for its main component, and the manager estimates the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next three years to be 10%. Supplier management costs during this period are $30,000 per supplier. The financial cost incurred if all four suppliers are disrupted at the same time is estimated to be $10,000,000. What is the expected monetary value (cost) of the current supplier diversification arrangement?

• A) $320,980
• B) $415,680
• C) $10,120,000
• D) $318,568
• E) $8,240,000

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Definitions:

Hawthorne Studies

A series of studies conducted in the early 20th century that examined how different work conditions affected employee productivity and concluded that workers were more motivated by attention and social factors than physical conditions.

Classical Management

A theory of management that emphasizes structured organization, hierarchy, and clear, defined roles and duties to enhance efficiency.

Productivity

The efficiency at which goods and services are produced, often measured by the output per unit of input.

Economic Incentives

Financial rewards or benefits used to motivate individuals or entities towards certain behaviors that align with economic goals.