Steve Went to an Astrologer, Who Predicted He Would Have

question 26

Multiple Choice

Steve went to an astrologer, who predicted he would have a business success in the near future. The next day, Steve was offered a promotion at work. Caitlin said that she knew of a well-controlled study that tested the predictions of astrologers and found they could not predict future events at better than chance levels. Which evidence should people trust MOST in drawing a conclusion about astrology?

• A) The scientific study, because it is based on more objective, systematic observations that can be replicated.
• B) The scientific study, because scientific research is never subject to personal bias and does not make incorrect predictions.
• C) The personal experience, because it is more real and compelling.
• D) The personal experience, because science cannot really study unusual phenomena such as predicting the future.

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Definitions:

Dependent Variable

The factor in a study or experiment that is anticipated to vary as a result of alterations in the independent variable.

Explained Variation

The portion of the total variation in a dataset that is accounted for by the model's predictions.

Random Error Term

Represents unexplained variability within a statistical model, capturing the random variance that is not accounted for by the explanatory variables.

Predictor Variables

Factors in statistical analyses that predict or account for variations in the dependent variable.