TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 63

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, the best interpretation of the constant 6.102 in the regression equation is

• A) the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005, prior to seasonal adjustment, is log₁₀(6.102).
• B) the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005, after to seasonal adjustment, is log₁₀(6.102).
• C) the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005, prior to seasonal adjustment, is 10⁶.¹⁰².
• D) the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005, after to seasonal adjustment, is 10⁶.¹⁰².

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Definitions:

Food Intake

The consumption of food by an organism or individual, key for sustenance and health.

Body Weight

The measure of weight of an individual's body, often used as an indicator of health in relationship to height.

Prevalence

The proportion of a particular population found to be affected by a specific condition at a given time.

BED

Binge Eating Disorder; a psychological disorder characterized by recurrent episodes of eating large quantities of food, often quickly and to the point of discomfort, followed by feelings of guilt or shame.